Market Risk of commercial bank

Market risk
Market risk is the risk that changes in equity, bond and commodity prices, as well as movements in foreign exchange rates and interest rates may adversely affect the bank’s trading and banking books. It can be categorized mainly into three types.

Equity and securities price risk

HNB shows its equity portfolio outperformed in the equity market over the last two years (2014-2015). Equity risk of trading portfolio as in the statement is 4.29%.
Further hikes in US interest rates may affect to decline in local equity and bond markets since high interest seeking foreign investors are returning to the more liquid and developed markets. Then the security prices may go down. As an effect of this, interest rate risk is minimal as over 70% of advances and 90% of deposits can be re priced within one year.
HNB shows they have affected from decline in bond prices due to increase of interest rates.
Commercial bank says they got an impact on profit or loss and equity as a result of a change in market price by 10% throughout the year.

Interest rate risk

This is the sensitive of interest income to changes in asset yields with sensitivity of interest expense to changes in the interest cost of liabilities.
According to the gap analysis of HNB shows 0.99 one month period gap between the banks interest rate sensitive assets and interest rate sensitive liabilities.
Commercial bank interest rate sensitivity gap for 2014 is 64690380000 when it is for 2015 is 55380409000. It may have reduced due to the stability of interest rates for assets and liabilities throughout the year of 2015.
Foreign Exchange rate risk
This arises as a result of fluctuations in the value of a financial instrument due to changes in foreign exchange rates.
HNB uses one day, 99% Value at Risk approach for overnight foreign exchange positions to reflect the 99% probability that the daily loss will not exceed the reported value at risk. According to that foreign exchange risk shows 0.54%.
Commercial bank regularly conducts analysis on Net Open Position (NOP) due to possible changes in the USD/LKR exchange rate to assess the exposure to foreign exchange risk. In 2014 NOP takes negative US$1117 that is much good than previous year. It says they have handled that risk.

Apart from above circumstances, followings are also affected to the market risk of HNB as well as for Commercial bank up to certain level.
Economy slowdown in China results lower investments from China to finance local infrastructure developments and therefore the bank has to grant loans for that projects, it takes about 6.4% of the lending portfolio.
Sustained drop in commodity priced for local exports declines in export revenue for companies involved in these sectors and that affect the loan recovering process badly.
Further decline in gold prices may give losses on gold backed endings. The bank’s pawning portfolio is only 3% of total advances and the impact is minimal due to possible auctioning of gold articles when not redeemed

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